This part of the planet is starting to head towards real defence issues with Australia and The States disagreeing on where the future lays with combat and how to prepare. Australia wants to equip the military for more conventional warfare and The States is heading in the direction of more unconventional warfare like with what you're seeing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Already the Pentagon has announced cuts - (see below posting).
The reason this is coming about is due to the massive arms build up China is going through right now and the potential of India with Pakistan heading towards HUGE dramas. That sucker is a nuclear powered locomotive without brakes. Dramas there isn't 'if', but 'when'.
It seems to me that resource defence is gonna be a huge thing in the future with a glimpse of it happening in Iraq at the mo. Obviously it would be unpopular for Australia to take an offensive role in SECURING resources so defence of current resources - (whether they be owned by Au, or others, but accessed by Au) - is gonna be the future role. Pre-emptive shit isn't out of the question though.
China being what it is - (communist, big, not all that concerned about human rights) - are gonna begin to look for more resources to feed the mamoth thing it is. It's just inevitable.
The question is, do we prepare now, or when they're securing the sub-continent?.
Wednesday, 15 April 2009
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mate, WE and not THEM are on the right track. Unfortunately I think we have the wrong huggers in place in both the US and Aus in the TOP job. They want to ge all kissy feely with the PRC..NOT GOOD if we do not prepre in the long term. that area is of interest to me ..its gunna happen, just a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteYou would normally lock your front door to keep your home safe if you feel the need. I see no difference in making sure this country has it's own front door, and every other door prepared, should the need ever arise, and of course well before any real threat is trying to invade us. With ANY MEANS NECESSARY.
ReplyDeleteI think some of that got blown way out of proportion.
ReplyDeleteAs for the States preparing more for unconventional warfare - sure - to a point. But, to put matters into perspective for the US re conventional warfare
US defence expenditure equals the combined expenditute of the next 12-15 countries combined. The US has 9 super-carrier battle groups, the rest of the world, combined, has zero. The US has 3 kinds of Stealth aircraft, the rest of the world has zero. The US has 9000 M1 Abrams - the rest of the world has nothing that comes close.
They can afford to taper their defence spend and still mantain a devastating conventional force.
In Australia, we can not be so complacent. Our defence budget and our defence force is so much smaller. We have one tank regiment in the regular army. One. That is 44 MBT's. To start tweaking with our structure without increasing spending will mean that we have to choose between having a small well trained army that can be rapidly expanded along conventional lines or abandoning the ability to fight a conventional war with the benefits of inter-operability with our most likely allies.
White Papers etc aren't worth a pinch of piss. Too many strategic decisions risk offending other nations for the real reasons for decisions to be published and endorsed by the government.
I think that we will see more of the same from the ADF in the future. Basically procuring materiel at a lag from the US so that we can maintain the ability to wage war with them in concert. The unconventional warfare angle will be important, but should we fail at that, it is unlikely to result in disastorous consequences for Aus. Failing at conventional warfare will.
I have to agree with lerm, The US needs to balance certain of it's forces esp with iraq winding down and the 'Stan winding up.
ReplyDeleteAlot of good ideas (FCS for example) are being mothballed until their really needed. Now you have to look also at Military R&D most lead times are 5-10 years minimum. There is a significnat chance that the PRC ( as we know it) might not hold together to actually make it to a shooting war with the USA. It has huge social and ecological problems (many of which are intertwinned) and whilst we're not looking at a return to the warring states we could see massive social strife in the near future.
In the near term India and Pakistan are big problems, well to be more exact Pakistan is the problem and India is the one who to start with will have to deal with it. If Pakistan goes down the crapper then the main military response will be NATO forces securing the border with the 'Stan a concerted effort by either SPECFOR or Navy air assets to remove/degrade Pakistans nuclear arsenal. India will seal up there border and then the world will watch the place implode.
So unless Putin goes completely Gaga or North Korea decides to be stupider tha they already are, the chances of the US actually engaging in a proper landwar in the next 10-15 years is actually slim IMHO that is
Sorry need to put something in context.
ReplyDeleteThe PLA is undergoing massive changes trying to become a 'modern' fighting force this means spending lots of dough both above board and covertly. They have five (in their eyes) unfriendly neighbours India, Japan, Taiwan,South Korea and Vietnam.
Except for a few particular weapon systems the PLA is not designed to go head to head with the seppos. it is however moving to becoming the military power on the block and if alot of those IRBM's currently targeted at Taiwan (current estimates are about 800-900) are redesignated I'd lay fair money on they being aimed at Japan.
You brought those MS shares and now you are worried, is that it Moko???
ReplyDeleteWhat White Papers don't mention is our capability for the invasion of NZ. That's what matters.
ReplyDeleteAlmost on topic and for Naut,
ReplyDeletehttp://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/metal-storm-launcher-nears-blast-off-20090417-aa2x.html